Let me start by saying that I am by no means an expert on Iranian politics (as I am sure you are all aware), but what is going on right now in Iran promises to be truly groundbreaking, so I am going to try and spread what I do know in hopes that we will all try to learn more about the situation right now.
So for those who have not been following, Iran held their presidential elections on June 12th of this year, with the incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad facing off against reformist challenger Mir-Hossein Mousavi. We are much more familiar with the fundementalist Ahmadinejad, but the reformist Mousavi also has a long history in the upper ranks of Iranian leadership. He was the Prime Minister until 1989 when constitutional changes removed his position, and also has been a candidate or potential candidate for presidency for the last 3 elections.
The controversy from this election came after Ahmadinejad won a two thirds victory over Mousavi on June 12th. However, Mousavi has asserted allegations of election fraud and a partial recount has been ordered. Mousavi (with 33 percent) was even so bold as to claim victory over Ahmadinejad, which seems extreme until one sees the massive empassioned following that Mousavi has. Their protests have filled the streets of Tehran with seas of green (Mousavi's campaign colours) despite of an order to shoot protestors that has already claimed several lives.
What makes this election so important is that Mousavi, a reformist, would drastically change the face of Iran if elected. During the campaign, he promised to bring privatized television (free press) and more secular leadership to Iran. Specifically, foreign policy and the military are controlled by The Supreme Leader, a religious, non-elected position. Mousavi, along with many other Iranians, feel that such major responsibilities should be carried by an elected official, namely the president, who has an actual connection to the people. He also criticized Ahmadinejad's economic policies.
A free press and more secularized government in Iran would mean major change not only domestically but also for the rest of the Middle East. I am sure I don't have to tell you that historically, Iranian-Western relations have not been peachy keen since the Iranian Revolution in 1979. Iran has clashed with the United States as well as Israel (Ahmadinejad does not recognize Israel's right to exist) on numerous occassions, and has consistently been seen as a threat by their leaders for decades. Free (non-state controlled) press and truly democratic control of major government functions (military) could change everything.
Although it seems that Mousavi will almost certainly not take office (even with the recount pending, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameni has backed Ahmadinejad's victory) There are small victories to be found in this election. Empassioned citizens have taken to the streets to demand reform and better control of their government, as well as an end to the alleged corruption of their current leaders.
I recently visited the remains of the Berlin Wall, and what struck me in learning about it is that even in oppressive or non-democratic regimes, leaders are aware of their people and en-masse, their voices can still be heard. Iran is far from the oppression of East Germany (despite the shooting of protestors), and therein lies the hope for change. Even if the election results are legitimate and the reformist movement is still a minority, it has received worldwide media attention and demonstrated its power domestically and internationally. I am not familiar enough with Iran to know whether this is the right party to lead, but what I do know is that freedom of press and secularized government are some of the first steps towards greater peace worldwide. As a major cornerstone of the Middle East, a major shift in Iran might make all the difference.
In the meantime, over 100,000 people are attending a "day of mourning" rally for the 8 protestors killed while Amnesty International says at least 170 have been detained for their involvement in the protests http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8107178.stm . There has been a crackdown on domestic and foreign press reporting on the events transpiring, but small bits of coverage are still leaking out. This paints a scary picture of the tense aftermath of thise election, and will hopefully not escalate into further violence or political arrests.
(Please note that although I have been following the story as much as possible in the last week, a lot of my information was taken from wikipedia so I could get a brief history of the candidates and Iranian politics in general. As I said before, I am hardly an expert, so if any of my information is wrong please let me know and i will correct it)
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